My 'quick' formula for calculating the loss/gain on an arb. Please keep in mind that this formula WILL NOT give you the exact number. It will however get you within a very tight range of the value and allow you to quickly scan arbitrage opportunities.
Take the difference in juice, divide by 2, divide by the odds of the favorite, mutiply this percentage by the average of your two bets.
Sounds confusing, right? Let's look at an example:
You find -110 at Pinnacle and +106 at Sportsinteraction and risk $500 at Pinnacle and bet to win $500 at Sportsinteraction.
-The difference in juice is 4 cents (110 minus 106)= 4
-Divide by 2 (4 divided by 2)= 2
-Divide by the line on the favorite (2 divided by 110)= 0.018
-You can convert this decimal to a percentage, the percentage is 1.8%(0.018)
-Multiply 1.8% by $500($500 * 0.018) = $9
This means you will expect to lose $9 on this bet (Since the line on the favorite is higher than the line on the underdog, this is a negative arb). No worries about losing $9 though, because you are making bonus money. Usually, you will find better odds than a -4c arb.
Sure, you could use the arb calculators to figure out the exact value, but those take up time and you need to be quick sometimes. Practice this method a few times to get the hang of it.
Lastly, with odds close to 100 (-110 to +110), just divide by 100 which is easy to do in your head. Take the above example:
- +106/-110 on $500 bets
- 4c difference, divide by 2 = 2, 2 divided by 100 (just move the decimal place)=.02
- .02(2%)* $500 = $10
So, the math changes, but just slightly. This way it is even faster to calculate them, you can just do it in your head. Takes a touch of practice to get down, but definitely worth it.
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