Monday, June 25, 2007

Sportsbook reload bonuses

This time of year (during baseball season), special sportsbook reloads are far and few between. That is because sportsbooks don't profit as much from baseball and some even have losing baseball seasons. The best reloads you are going to find are probably going to be 10-15 pct. Even those reloads can seem rare right now.

So what can you do?

From my experience (and that of those I coach), you can sometimes just ask and get a special reload. Let's say you deposited $1,000 at a sportsbook and busted. That sportsbook obviously loves you, right? Why not go to live chat at the sportsbook and ask if there are any special reload offers open to you. You will be surprised at what you are offered at the sportsbooks that you keep busting at. It's not uncommon to be offered 25pct special reload bonuses even when they are only offering 10pct to everyone else.

Give it a try and see what happens, the worst they will say at the sportsbook is "no".

To give you a few hints on books this trick works at for me and my players:

Justbet
SportsInteraction
BetJamaica
Betmaker

Monday, June 18, 2007

Confirm and Re-Confirm your Bets!


Confirm and re-confirm your bets


Each site has a slightly different betting program. Most require you to place a bet and then confirm it on the next screen. This is very important to ensure your bet has been placed. Make sure your available balance has dropped, go to your account and make sure the bets in there. Lastly, I keep a screenshot or just save the webpage confirmation of every bet I make and save it in a folder on my computer. I've never had a problem, but its best to be safe since sometimes you could be making some large wagers.

With matchbook, make sure you submit and then confirm your bet. It takes 2 clicks to confirm there, then check your account to ensure your bet was placed for the proper amount.

It may take a little extra time to do this with all of your sports arb plays, but its worth it for the one time you do catch a mistake.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Sportsbook Bonus List

**Modified to reflect order changes due to baseball season**

Here is a recommended order to work the bonuses. This is a general recommendation and your own bankroll needs may alter the order.

1. Canbet
2. BetJamaica
3. 5Dimes
4. Diamond
5. Pinnacle
6. Skybook
7. Sportbet
8. SportsInteraction
9. Bet365
10. Betmaker
11. VIP (No North America)
12. Justbet


Plus, try to do Pinnacle as soon as your 2 weeks of free trading ends at Matchbook. Try to max out the bonus there, however its not the end of the world if you can't spare that much. Then, use both pinny and MB and add 1 more bonus book to arb against. Priority will go to arbing with pinny instead of MB until the bonus is cleared at pinny.

If you have any down times, you can add in the small bonuses if you haven't previously signed up there:

1. Mansion
2. Stan James
3. Totesport
4. BetFair
5. Expekt
6. Blue Square
7. Bet Fred

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Now is the time to work on 2betdsi

2betdsi, or Diamond Sportsbook, is part of the Betcris family of sportsbook. However, at 2betdsi, they offer 10 cent baseball lines. The signup bonus doesn't appear quite as great as the others. Except, 2betdsi gives you 1 point for every dollar you wager. It works out to be a value of about $10 per $1,000 you bet at 2betdsi.

2betdsi wagering requirement on the initial signup bonus is 5x deposit. So, if you deposited even $1,000, got a $200 bonus and got unlucky and was forced to finish the wagering requirment here, you would earn another $50 from the loyalty points.

Finding arbs is fairly easy here. Note that the reduced juice on baseball doesn't generally start until after 11am-11:30am EST on most days.

Use 2betdsi bonus code DM20 to get credited with the 20 percent bonus.

Click here for the complete review of 2betdsi

Monday, June 11, 2007

Arbing middles

Once you are experienced, you will start to notice arbs very quickly. You might also start taking more middles. Middles are when you are hoping for the total or spread to land on a specific number.

Example- Bulls/Rockets game, you take one bet -105 OVER 203 and take another one UNDER 203.5 +103. Now if the total lands at exactly 203, then you win the UNDER bet and push the OVER bet. Say, you bet 500 on each side, would mean you would win 500 bucks. You are always guaranteed to win one of those two bets. Now, it appears you have a negative 2 cent arb (-105,+103) but in the NBA 0.5 pts on the total is worth about 4 to 5 cents of juice. So really, you can consider this a positive 3 cent arb with a ton of variance. Trust me, if one of these hit for you, you will be quite happy.

In general in the NBA,

Each 1/2 pt on the total is worth 5 cent juice, each 1/2 pt to the spread is worth roughly 9 cents juice. Keep in mind its not worth 9 cents between a spread of -1 to +1, its worth a little less. Now if you are dealing with a halftime line, 1/2 pt on the total is worth 9 cents juice or so and 1/2 pt on the 1H spread is usually worth 14 cents or so.

In football, it varies drastically, since certain spreads and totals are more likely to hit than others. In football, a 1/2 pt off of a 7 pt spread is worth 15 cents, off of 3 is around 20 cents, yet off of a number like 8, it could be worth only 2 cents. On totals, in general, a 1/2 pt is worth 4-5 cents, but certain numbers like 35,38,42,48 are worth more.

In baseball, I consider a o/u of 7 or 9 to have 25c-30c of value. I consider an 8 or 10 to have 15c-20c value. The reason for this is because a game always will end if the total is odd. However, if the total is even, for example 8, then the score could be 4-4 and go to extra innings. So an odd total in baseball is definitely worth more than an even total.

Saturday, June 9, 2007

Consider taking underdogs at your bonus book

For example, if you find +200 at your bonus book and -205 at MB/pinnacle, it may appear its not a great bet due to the -5c arb. However, when you have a larger moneyline, you can take a larger negative arb without it costing you as much.

Remember the quick formula- (difference in spread) divided by 2 divided by (spread of the favorite or underdog)

This makes this 5/2/200 = negative 1.25 pct loss on the wager on the underdog. So, if you had 500 on the underdog, you would have an expected loss of $6.25(1.25%).

So, a -5c arb on a +200/-205 bet is the equivalent of a -2.5c on a +100/-102.5 bet (which has a negative 1.25% expected loss).

The main benefit here however is the fact that the favorite will win well more than 50% of the time and allow you to bust out the book sooner, most of the time. Sometimes the underdog will win and chances are you will have to finish off the rollover and cashout but less than if you take 50/50 bets all the time.

This should allow you to work more bonuses faster, since you will be busting out sooner more often.

To quantify this a little, let's take the example of a book you deposited 800 at and got a 200 bonus for a total of 1000. The max bet at this site just happens to be 1000 also and has a 5xDB rollover. We will take 2 trials, one where you take a +200 underdog every bet and another you take an even money spread.

- The even money spread arb should win, on average, 50 pct of the time. 50 pct of the time you will bust your first bet and be done. 50 pct of the time you will win there and be up to a 2000 balance. Now, since max bet is 1000, you will have to make at least 2 more bets to attempt to bust. Now, you make 2 more 1000 bets at even money. The odds of losing on both of them is a 25 pct chance, odds of winning one of each is 50 pct and the odds of winning both is 25 pct. If you win one of each or win both, you are guaranteed to have to at least finish the rollover to cash out.

So total chance of busting out before rollover is 1st bet:50% + 2nd bet: (50%*25%)= 62.5% chance. With 50 pct of the time having bet 1000 and 12.5 pct of the time having bet 3000 here.

- The +200 underdog will win about 33 pct of the time. Therefore, 67 pct of the time you will bust. 33 pct of the time you will win your underdog and now have a 3000 balance and you can switch over to even money spread bets since you will, odds are, be finishing the rollover. The odds of losing your next 3 bets is a 12.5 pct chance. Even then, you would have completed 80 pct of the rollover and overwhelming odds are you will have to finish. So, we will just disregard busting after the 1st bet.

So total chance of busting out before rollover is 1st bet:67%.
.......

Take a +300 underdog and expect to bust the first bet 75% of the time (You won't always find this type of opportunity).

Typically is it fairly easy to find good moneyline arbs in the 140 to 200 range.

This may sound a little confusing at first, its hard to quantify this strategy. Basically, busting out earlier means you have your money sooner to work on a new bonus. Please ask questions if there is anything here you do not understand or that I have wrong.

Friday, June 8, 2007

My 'quick' formula for calculating arbs in my head

My 'quick' formula for calculating the loss/gain on an arb. Please keep in mind that this formula WILL NOT give you the exact number. It will however get you within a very tight range of the value and allow you to quickly scan arbitrage opportunities.

Take the difference in juice, divide by 2, divide by the odds of the favorite, mutiply this percentage by the average of your two bets.

Sounds confusing, right? Let's look at an example:

You find -110 at Pinnacle and +106 at Sportsinteraction and risk $500 at Pinnacle and bet to win $500 at Sportsinteraction.

-The difference in juice is 4 cents (110 minus 106)= 4
-Divide by 2 (4 divided by 2)= 2
-Divide by the line on the favorite (2 divided by 110)= 0.018
-You can convert this decimal to a percentage, the percentage is 1.8%(0.018)
-Multiply 1.8% by $500($500 * 0.018) = $9

This means you will expect to lose $9 on this bet (Since the line on the favorite is higher than the line on the underdog, this is a negative arb). No worries about losing $9 though, because you are making bonus money. Usually, you will find better odds than a -4c arb.

Sure, you could use the arb calculators to figure out the exact value, but those take up time and you need to be quick sometimes. Practice this method a few times to get the hang of it.

Lastly, with odds close to 100 (-110 to +110), just divide by 100 which is easy to do in your head. Take the above example:

- +106/-110 on $500 bets
- 4c difference, divide by 2 = 2, 2 divided by 100 (just move the decimal place)=.02
- .02(2%)* $500 = $10

So, the math changes, but just slightly. This way it is even faster to calculate them, you can just do it in your head. Takes a touch of practice to get down, but definitely worth it.

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Keys to being successful at baseball arbitrage

Baseball arbitrage can be one of the best ways to make money, especially from a sports bonus arbitrage perspective. The key is to take full advantage of the books that offer good lines. By that, I mean the book that have small gaps between their prices (i.e- -125/+115), this is also known as a dimeline because there is a 10c gap between the 2 prices. This dimeline will be offered only on the money-line and not on the run-line or totals, these will generally have 20c pricing.

What about the sportsbooks that offer better than dimeline pricing? There are a few:

PinnacleSports:
Overnight Lines: Yes
Reverse Run Lines: Yes
5-inning lines: Yes: RLs, MLs & Totals
Reduced Juice Totals: Yes
Grand Salami Totals: Yes
Team Totals: Yes

.08 up to -190


WSEX

.07 up to -110 (only on money-line, though)


5dimes:

.05 up to -162 (overnight only on money-line)


For a solid all-around book, check out Wagerstreet. Wagerstreet is part of the Olympic group (thegreek and betjamaica). Wagerstreet offers dimeline pricing on money-lines, run-lines and totals all day long. Wagerstreet has a 20pct cash bonus for signing up. A real easy to navigate no-frills betting system, this books offers some of the best lines anywhere to arb from.

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

When is the best time to arb?

I get asked this question a lot about when the best time to arb is. From my experience of sports arbitrage, it varies by what sport choices you have to bet on. For example, right now, I will generally check baseball games before the early 1pm EST games around 11am. I will check again for the evening games that start at 7pm and later around 5pm to 6pm.

I will generally not spend much time with sports arbitrage, usually no more than 15 minutes once or twice a day. If nothing is there, then I move on. You don't want to get wrapped up in waiting by the computer for that "perfect arb", it's best to check once to twice a day and make the best available bet on the board. Even if it is for a small loss on the arb, you still more than make up for that with the bonus and time saved.

If you are looking for a good bonus right now, check out Sportbet. They offer a $250 cash bonus on a $500 deposit. A very solid book which has always been quick with their withdrawals. Sportbet has dimeline pricing and has always been one of my favorite book to play with (15pct reloads doesn't hurt either).

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Sportsinteraction is a good place to start


If you are new, it can be tough at the beginning to find a good bet. Check out Sportsinteraction, they offer lines well outside of the norm with the other sportsbooks. You will have an easier time shopping for good lines here versus other sportsbooks.

You get a 10pct bonus at Sportsinteraction for signing up, up to a $100 bonus. Payouts are reliable here, but don't expect to get them same day. Many have experienced between 3-5 day waits for their withdrawal. All things considered however, Sportsinteraction is a great place to start out.

Read the review here:
Sportsinteraction

Then, tell us how you're experience was there.

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Tennis arbitrage: Know what you are doing

Arbitrage with tennis is probably the single toughest sport to arbitrage with. It seems like each book has different rules on the sport and has managed to ruin the day of more than one bonus arbitrage hunter before. If you are going to arbitrage with tennis, then please make sure you are clear on each books rules before you try. One mistake with arbitrage and you could end up costing yourself a couple weeks' arbitrage pay.

Here are all the rules I have on file. Please feel free to add to this list by posting a comment.

5dimes - one set completed (for sports arbitrage)
Bet24 - one set completed (for sports arbitrage)
Bet365 - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
AdmiralBet - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Betandwin - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
Betfair - one set completed (for sports arbitrage)
BetInternet - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
BlueSq - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
Canbet - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Caribsports.com - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
Centrebet - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
BETCRIS - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Betdirect.net - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Coral.co.uk - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
Easybets - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Fonbet - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
Gamebookers - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Globet - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
Intertops - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Ladbrokes - match must start (for sports arbitrage)
NordicBet - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Thegreek/Betjamaica - two sets completed (for sports arbitrage)
Paddy Power - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Pinnacle - two sets completed (for sports arbitrage)
Sky Bet - one set completed (for sports arbitrage)
Stan James - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Totalbet.com - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Totesport.com - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
UKbetting.com - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Unibet - one set completed (for sports arbitrage)
Victor Chandler - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
Willliam Hill - match completed (for sports arbitrage)
WSEX - one set completed(for sports arbitrage)